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Investor Call Tech Tidbits: Garmin Q2 2017

GRMN

When I’m sufficiently bored, I listen to investor calls for companies in the segment.  Or, I read through investor reports – such as Amer Sports (parent company of Suunto), last weekend.  In actuality, these calls are often filled with interesting tidbits for those familiar with the companies’ business components.  It’s just that they are rarely stated in an obvious way on the call (except GoPro, they’re usually more direct/obvious).

Now of course, not every company in this segment does investor calls or similar reports.  It’s mostly just the biggies that are publically traded entities.  So no reports or calls from Wahoo, PowerTap or countless others.  But there are ones from GoPro, Fitbit, Garmin, and Apple.

I’m gonna keep this short and to the point, more like bullet-points to be specific, since while there’s nothing earth-shattering in here, there are lots of things worthwhile chewing on.  Note that I’m not going to talk financials here.  Meaning, stuff like operating growth, gross margins and blah-blah-blah, I mostly don’t care about.  Instead, it’s largely the non-financial tidbits I’m interested in.

Note that I won’t do these for every quarter or every company.  Just cases where I think there are enough worthwhile things to post about.  Sort of an extended version of what I sometimes include in the ‘Week in Review’ posts.

Apps, Apps, Apps:

Garmin pretty much kicked off the call with a bang by noting that in the last 12 months there have been 17 million downloads of Connect IQ apps to Garmin devices (apps/widgets/data fields).  Since inception there’s been over 30 million app downloads. These numbers build on the numbers I heard back at the Connect IQ summit, indicating that Garmin is definitely doing something right here as it shows multiple app downloads per device (I think it was ~6 apps per device is the average, from some numbers I had last winter, but my memory might be failing me there).

As an aside, at one point there was a bit of a rambling investor on the call, and he noted a Garmin Connect IQ app to control your Tesla (and then proceeded to note how he found it interesting nobody knew about it when talking with friends).  Ironically enough, I never knew such an app existed either, but sure enough – there is one.  Learn something new every day… Now, if only I can get someone to loan me a Tesla.

Activity Trackers Are Hurting:

Garmin noted multiple times (no really, a LOT of times) that basic activity trackers, specifically the Vivofit, have sputtered out for them.  They explained that going forward into Q3 they’re “counting on a steep decline in the activity tracker market”  and that they’re “following the rising and falling tides in that area”.

They compared this to the industry at large, though that’s slightly misleading – Garmin is mostly just lacking with fashionable options like Fitbit at the lower end.  When asked for a breakout of activity tracker declines by one investor, they deferred a little bit and pointed to an NPD number showing the market is down 32% for US sales of activity trackers.  What they didn’t say though was that wearables at large is actually up 17%.

As a result of this drop for them though, they decreased their growth guidance for the Fitness segment, for which Activity Trackers are a part of.  They noted that the Forerunner lineup (which is part of Fitness) continues to be strong, but more on that in a minute.

(This chart says ‘2016 Revenue guidance’, which I’m 99% sure is just a typo, since you wouldn’t give guidance on something from a year ago.)

GarminMEdia3

(Sorry they’re fuzzy pics, annoyingly Garmin’s investor portal set a fixed slideshow size for the livestream, of which the size was basically no bigger than a watch-face to view.)

Fenix, Fenix, Fenix:

The vast majority of investor/analyst questions were about the Fenix lineup, and for good reason – it’s made Garmin a crapton of money and is probably the single most important product at the company.  Remember that Fenix is officially categorized in their ‘Outdoor’ business unit, and not their ‘Fitness’ one (that’s cycling stuff, Forerunner-anything, and Vivo-anything).  Years ago this was logical because Fenix started off as a hiking watch, and it kept it in the same group as hiking handhelds and related, which made sense.  These days though, it’s mostly just a clever way to make the Outdoor business look larger than it would be otherwise.

As Garmin pointed out about 98 times, the Fenix 5 is selling a crapton of units.

GarminMEdia

When asked about popularity of case sizes, they repeatedly deferred questions for device model breakouts (i.e. percentage per size), but they did note that “In the [Fenix 5S], we’re definitely seeing the majority of customers towards (the) female demographic.”

And if we look at the charts, we’ll see that Outdoor now surpasses every other business segment at Garmin, both for revenue and operating income.

GarminMEdia5

Also, due in large part because of the popularity of the Fenix 5, they’ve revised their Outdoor growth guidance from 10% to 25% for 2017.  That’s a pretty massive change.

Running Watches:

With activity trackers crapping the bed of the ‘Fitness’ division, it’s basically up to the running watches and cycling gear to make up for it.  Running watches was mentioned repeatedly as a segment that they’re seeing strong growth in:

“In our Forerunner category, which is what I’ll call our ‘made for running product line’, we’re seeing double-digit growth strength in that product line, so we feel very good about that category and the market if you will.”

This doesn’t surprise me much, as I suspect most of that is being currently driven by the Forerunner 935 and to a lesser extent the Forerunner 735XT, given the Forerunner 230/235 and Forerunner 630 (running-focused watches) are almost two years old now.

Cycling and Bikes:

There was zero mention of cycling stuff in today’s call.  I don’t think the word ‘bike’ or ‘cycle’ was uttered even once.

A Sleight of Hand:

Again, when looking at the Fitness segment declines, it’s INCREDIBLY important to remember that Fenix is eating into Forerunner sales in a huge way.  It’s simply a shift where people that used to buy a Forerunner watch are now buying a Fenix watch.  It’s actually weird that Garmin didn’t make any attempts to point this out to investors, since it’s such an important thing to understand.  Sure, activity tracker sales are slumping at the low end (~$100 Vivofit devices specifically), but Forerunner devices are doing well sales-wise, it’s just that many sales are converted to the Fenix lineup, which sits in a different financial reporting division.

Remember that unlike Fitbit, Garmin does not generally provide any unit/model sales numbers. Nor do they provide any breakout of revenue by product categories within a financial reporting division.  Meaning we don’t know the exact breakout of Fenix vs Delorme stuff within Outdoor, or any of the other random products that are in the Outdoor group.

Action Cams:

Action cameras were moved earlier this year to the auto group, for no clear reason in particular.  While Garmin made no mention of the base VIRB Ultra 30, they did briefly touch on the VIRB 360 they just launched, purely explaining to investors what it was.  However, they didn’t really provide any insight in this area beyond their basic overview.  And no investors/press asked any questions about it.

The Future:

As is expected on most investor calls, Garmin immediately deflected any questions about product futures with a standard no-comment about futures disclaimer. The closest they got was when asked about the Fenix product refresh cycle, and whether it would be a 2-year or 1-year cycle, was answered with:

“We do have a very active roadmap in all of our wearables”

That said, they did actually end up dropping some futures discussions.  For example:

Activity Tracker Market: “Our product introductions will take place a little later in this year in terms of refresh.” – This was in reference to questions about the decline of activity trackers this year and Garmin talked a bit about where they stand quarter by quarter, talking to a soft Q3 (now till September), but that later this year they’d basically have new products that should breathe some life into their Fitness division numbers.

Advanced Wearables: Whatever the heck this means, they’re focused on squeezing money out of it.  My assumption here is simply them focusing on their higher end Forerunner units.  Given it’s part of the Fitness slides, that’s logical.  Since they used the word ‘wearable’, that likely doesn’t imply things from the recent acquisition of aerodynamics company

GarminMEdia2

Holiday Sales: When asked about what Garmin might be doing for the holidays for Outdoor/Fitness segments compared to 2016, Garmin stated that “I think you’ll see us do similar types and sizes of campaigns in the holiday buying seasons to support our overall revenue plan, and our retailers as they carry our product.”

That’s a fancy way of saying look at 2016 sales to see what they might do for 2017.  What’s that?  You want a complete inventory of those sales?  No problem, I kept track of them all in a historical table, which you can find here (both a Garmin table, and then an everyone else table lower down under ‘Expired deals’.

Okey doke – that’s all we got.  As I said, nothing earth-shattering.  But for those sports tech geeks out there, I’m sure you’ll find some interesting tidbits in there.  Also note that I don’t really comment on specific unannounced products, unless it comes up in an investor call like this or other public interview.

With that – enjoy your evening!

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64 Comments

  1. Perry

    Any comment at all about the purchase of Alphamantis and future product timelines?

  2. Patrick Myers

    So sounds like no sale on the Fenix5 till at least the holidays then – no need for them to move existing inventory. Great for them, bummer for me.

  3. ekutter

    So they do group the 935 in the fitness group rather than the “Fenix lineup”? Interesting since it is more or less the same product.

    Any idea what the ratio is of Fenix 5 (incl. S & X) sales to 935 sales? Is the Fenix 5X selling better than the Epix did at first?

    • Correct, technically grouped under Fitness (despite basically being the same).

      They declined to answer any questions related to model breakouts. Though, I can tell you from the numbers I see that the 5X is easily outselling Epix that it kinda looks like my Venn diagram from yesterday’s Wahoo post.

    • Wasn’t Epix sales such that outselling it could still lead to a product with not enough sales to continuing supporting it? Now hopefully the 5X is similar enough to the 5 that supporting it is simple

    • Tim Grose

      Outselling an Epix? That is a discontinued product so surely not hard!

  4. Great post as always. I used to be a huge fan of Garmin products and have faithfully upgraded various products over the years. But the past few months have really changed my perception of Garmin. The Fenix 5 simply does not work when it comes to ANT+ connectivity. Tons of dropouts on all kinds of sensors including the PT P1s, Stryd, Stages and also their RD Pod. Garmin support in Germany had refused to take it in for a fix stating there would be a software update ‘soon’. Four weeks ago, they finally agreed to take the F5 back. Three weeks later – no news from Garmin except for silence. Turns out they have implemented a new ERP system. They are currently not able to track returns. No idea where my watch is. I have spoken to three different people including a manager. Garmin is not willing to provide an interim loaner/ replacement. Looks like I will be without a watch for 4-8 weeks at this point. The support manager literally said: “That’s the way it is. You will just have to be patient. Get over it.” Sad. There is something awfully wrong at that company.

    • Yup, I agree, the Fenix 5/5S dropouts for ANT+ is frustrating. If you didn’t see it, I updated my post with comments from Garmin about it yesterday: link to dcrainmaker.com

    • Steven Brown

      Think Garmin has by far the best devices, and this seems to be translating into complacency on the support side, as they know users are unlikely to go elsewhere.
      I had an F3 for a bit, but the GPS was woeful. The support was dreadful – refusal to accept any kind of issue (despite it being all over the forums), speaking to people as if they were idiots (“don’t you know GPS is only accurate to x metres, etc”) – put me off Garmin for a while. I went back for the Forerunner 735xt, but would never buy another Garmin product until it’s been out in the wild without problems for a good few months.

      Thanks for the summary Ray – I enjoy this kind of info, though not enough to sit through one of the calls :D

    • Patrick Myers

      Ray, from what I can tell, this isn’t happening on the 935, right? I have a Stryd and P1s, so this ANT+ dropping of both is problematic. I’ve been eyeing the F5, but maybe the 935 is a better option (though I wish it had the quick switch straps).

    • Tim Grose

      No problems with the 935 and Stryd for me. I am moderator on the Garmin forums and a lot of people there have said that they have switched from an F5 to a 935 partly for this reason and the other obvious advantage for sports use is that it is somewhat lighter. You can use QuickFit bands with the 935 (same size ones as the standard F5). They just don’t come with them out of the box. Power meter connectivity stability to any watch (not just an F5 or 935) has long been a hot topic. Some power meters appear to emit a weaker signal than others. Certainly my one (an older Rotor) works fine with the 935 when the watch is nearer to the PM but can be problematic further away.

    • Patrick Myers

      Thanks Tim!!

    • No issues that I’ve heard of with the 935. Purely 5/5S.

    • Joe

      Patrick- I have dropout issues with the FR935/P1’s – power and cadence. I have an E1000 and FR935 paired w/ the P1’s and E810 paired w/ KICKR1. Not sure what’s going on, but the issue started w/ 1000/P1’s when I got the 935 in April. I see a brief dropout every 3-4 minutes on both the 1000 and 935 that occurs at the same time (I see it live on the units and in GC afterward). Doesn’t seem to impact HR strap, Garmin speed/cadence sensor, or KICKR data. Had no issues w/ the 1000 from Nov 2016 until I got the 935. If I don’t record w/ the 935, the dropouts go away on the E1000. Haven’t seen anything on the forums, so might just be a one off for me.
      -Joe

    • Tim Grose

      That’s very odd Joe. Have you mentioned this on the Garmin forums as sounds like something to explore in more detail than we can practically do here. I do recall some discussion about P1 issues. Here is a recent one link to forums.garmin.com but that user seemed to have no issues with the Edge 1000.

    • Patrick Myers

      Joe, do you get dropouts if you are using just the 935 and not the Edge 1000? I wonder if there’s some 935 + Edge 1000 issue that is causing ANT interference. I don’t have the 1000 (I have a 520) so if it’s specific to that combo, I might be ok.

    • Joe

      Patrick- I tried a short 15 min test ride tonight without the E1000 and only saw one drop on the 935. That was a surprise, but a good result. I also did a 15 min test with both recording at first and turned the E1000 off mid way through- the dropouts went away after turning off the E1000. So you might be ok. I’ll have to do some more experimenting. It actually took me a month before I even noticed the issue- I was focusing more on the TV/Zwift data which was connected to the KICKR rather than the head units and the KICKR didn’t have as many dropouts. The average power for the rides was only impacted a little. The dropouts were only for a second, but they add up if there are enough of them. Overall I’ve been happy with the 935. Bought it in April as an upgrade from the FR910xt and FR620 (also have an E810 and E1000). I got it for the resting HR trending, the “good enough” OHR if I just wanted to go for a short walk and not put on a HR strap, swimming HR, and consolidating some of the metrics that were siloed across the Forerunner and Edge devices. I’ve also been happy with the P1’s. Had them since Nov/Dec 2016.

      Tim- thanks for the link. I saw there were some issues with Stages/935 and Stryd/F5, but hadn’t seen the more recent thread with the P1’s. I emailed Garmin back in May/June and I’ve only recently gotten around to running some more indoor test rides to try to isolate the issue. If there isn’t a known issue, it’s hard for Garmin to isolate the issue because everyone is running different sensors and everyone’s environment is different with potential interference. I thought it was specific to the 935, but it could be the E1000/935 combo. I want to try pairing it to the KICKR or get outside with the G3 hub to try and rule out any P1 issue. Although it’s harder to distinguish dropouts vs. actual no pedaling with the outdoor rides.

    • Student of Life MD

      Hmm, that ‘s weird. I’ve not seen any dropouts on my Garmin Fenix 5 with ANT devices. I’ve used it with the Garmin cadence/speed sensors, a garmin and Magellan heart rate strap. It detects them instantly, and I’ve had 0 dropouts from either.

      I purchased mine fairly recently though (within the last 2 months) so maybe a not so public hardware/firmware fix was done to correct it ?

    • Joe

      Following up… my FR935/E1000 dropout issue is fixed. Removing and reconnecting the P1’s to the 935 did it. Accidentally came across this while trying something else. Never thought to try it since the connection was fine on its own. I have done 2 rides without issue.

  5. Pedro Navarro

    I think Garmin has a huge software quality problem and it’s all the more noticeable in the Fenix 5X series. Maps simply don’t work at all except for some trivial use cases and their whole ecosystem is based on selling you maps and shipping 1990s desktop mapping software, riddled with bugs and with a confusing lineup (Basecamp or MapSource? both terrible). Connect IQ is a toy just valid for the simplest of apps because it’s limited by an underpowered hardware platform that has only three/four buttons as an interface and ships with usually buggy firmware that takes months to get right, developing without being in touch with the community -which is the expected way to do things in this day and age. And don’t get me started on Garmin Connect!

    I think that outside of the fitness community it’s going to get hard for them in the mid term, once the competitors catch up, unless they begin doing better. Right now their web software platform offers nothing over Strava, for example, unless is access to the private data fields that they insist on not making public (like Running Dynamics), maybe so people keep using Connect?

    Once technology evolves and it becomes possible to power a modern watch for the full duration of an activity Garmin is going to be in serious trouble.

    If they

    • Paul S.

      “Basecamp or MapSource? both terrible”. And both abandonware. The Mac version of BaseCamp hasn’t been updated in over a year. Too bad, because it was my main tool for route creation, and I still use it.

    • Kyle

      Maps work perfectly as they should on the 5x. I use them extensively. I use the official Garmin 24k and also OSM maps. Reading your post it definitely seems like a user problem.

    • Pedro Navarro

      I don’t think it’s an user problem, I wish it was. Maybe my intended usage is more complicated than yours?

      – If you create a route (“Follow Course”) you’ll see it on the maps but there will be no turn by turn navigation unless you add the points manually (and they will work sometimes). In that mode waypoints will be ignored and the distance remaining will be shown to the finish point! (No distance to the next aid station). If you go off route you won’t get navigation back on course. If your course does a loop and you go on the wrong side of the loop (ie, clockwise instead of counterclockwise) you won’t get a warning and you won’t have a way of knowing that you are going wrong.

      – If you do navigation (ie, “Use Map”), the waypoints get added (they lose their icons) and the route gets calculated by the watch once you load it, instead of using the precalculated one that’s on the TCX file. That’s fine, but a 50k route takes 2-4 minutes where the watch seems to be hung and then, sometimes, you get hundreds of breadcrumbs instead of a solid line. If you go off route the watch calculates the route again but it ignores the shaping points and calculates the route to the next waypoint! That doesn’t work on a trail race where the course is not the shortest way between two points (that’s why you use shaping points). When everything works fine, you get turn by turn directions but -again- there is no way of knowing the remaining distance or ETA to the next waypoint (ie, aid station), only to the next turn.

      – Depending on the combination of maps you are using in basecamp and the ones you have enabled on the watch you might or not get an elevation profile or turn by turn directions. It’s a trial-and-error process. With the watch’s slow CPU it takes a lot of time.

      – Depending on the profile you have selected (Cycling? Pedestrian? Hiking?) you might get directions on the map or as a new screen. In the combination that worked for me I don’t get turn by turn directions if I’m on another screen while running (like the current lap statistics), so I hear my watch beeping and I have to quickly press the buttons to find the map screen. I believe that doesn’t happen on the Cycling profile, but cycling has breadcrumbs. There is no way of customizing the profiles, or documentation about what each one does.

      – The user needs to know too much about the internals of the mapping system in order to get things to (barely) work. OSM maps don’t get elevation and I had to write my own tool to add elevation to all track points (or use gpsbabel).

      – There is zero documentation about anything. Maybe if you come from a Garmin handheld GPS you know about the system’s quirks and how to massage your files to get them to display however you want, but if you are new to Garmin’s mapping ecosystem you are pretty much on your own having to deal with an unintuitive set of software.

      – There are lots of little quirks here and there (for example: can’t customize the text size when you zoom in -As I run without glasses there was one time I missed my turn that I couldn’t read the trail name on the map- The zoom factor doesn’t stick and it takes forever to press buttons until you get to the zoom in/out commands, forcing me to ignore the map and just keep on running where I thought the route was supposed to go) that make the system cumbersome and non-functional but for the simple cases.

      For me it all boils down to: unless you want to go from A to B and you just need a map reference to tell you where you are supposed to go, the maps are a huge disappointment and useless for their advertised purpose. Hardware limitations makes them slow and hard to use.

    • Kyle

      Your case does seem to me complicated than mine. I use mine for hiking on multiple day trips and trail runs.

      Just a couple points…

      I dont use follow course. I always use “use map” feature as it takes the work out of making a course with waypoints for you. Thats one of the features I do like, I just get to the trailhead and select where I want to go. I did have to use follow course a couple times as I was out in the middle of nowhere for a few days and it wasnt an issue. The issue I have is how much work it takes to get a course onto the watch with waypoints, elevation data, etc. You then have to convert the gpx file to tcx… Its way more work than it should be.

      Also, I get elevation data fine with OSM.

    • Pedro Navarro

      I see your point. If you use the watch to select a point and go it works well, I agree. I have used the auto-course function to do a 5 or 10k loop around my house and I can see the turns. My problem is that it’s impossible to do the same with a custom course. My issues with elevation come from basecamp because a routable OSM map in some cases blocks the topo map.

      If Garmin’s use case for the maps is for folks to find and follow routes using just the watch I can see how users can be happy and there might not be the perception that there is a problem. If that’s the case then it’s not being made clear enough that custom imported routes is not the main way of using the functionality.

      I’m with you that the process of importing a route is incredibly complicated and that you have to be aware of many internals, like shaping points, route profiles map layers and file formats, just to be able to create a file that you never know it’s going to work.

      As a very frequent trail runner who likes exploring new places, I thought this watch was going to be the solution to my problems. I have given up and use the watch like a heavy Forerunner witb Altimeter problems. I rely on downloaded maps on my phone for the routing :(

  6. Sylvester Jakubowski

    “Also note that I don’t really comment on specific unannounced products, unless it comes up in an investor call like this or other public interview.”

    I think Ray is getting blasted by a volume of comments/emails/etc on a certain new bike computer :)

  7. “Years ago this was logical because Fenix started off as a hiking watch, and it kept it in the same group as hiking handhelds and related, which made sense.”

    The Fenix started off as a battery that hikers (and athletes of events longer than four hours in duration) found useful. Give Garmin credit for prioritizing long battery life from the first generation, rather than building it into subsequent generations.

  8. Anonymous

    Meant in the kindest, most respectful way possible:
    The idiom is “Sleight of Hand”, not “Slight of Hand”.
    link to en.wikipedia.org

  9. Nighthawk700

    Thanks for the link to last year’s sales. You’re correct in that was the first thing I wondered about. My daughter started running with me recently, so I’m eyeing the FR 25 or similar for her. Looks like the holiday sales were a better deal than the current refurb units are. I’ll have to see if she (or I) can wait that long. ;-) But overall, I enjoyed reading your summary. I noticed the hand held and automobile units weren’t mentioned at all. I’m guessing either because you don’t have interest in those, or because their numbers are so small now, or both. When geocaching and kayaking I still use an eTrex, and there are times when driving in remote areas I like to still use my Nuvi. Guess I’m old fashioned (or practical).

    • Aside from Garmin basically noting that auto stuff continues to tank, it wasn’t mentioned. No mention of hand-held.

    • Actually, there was one interesting question where an analyst asked whether or not Garmin intends to play a part in the automated car movement. They didn’t really provide a clear/convincing answer. Sorta a ‘we hope we’re selected to move onto the live shows’ kinda thing you’d see on America’s Got Talent.

  10. Kyle

    I hope the 5x is selling well, it’s the perfect device at the moment. Love using maps in the mountains.

  11. So if the fenix is outdoor (I see the logic) and the new forerunner is fitness but based on the same hardware, does that leave the quatix 5 and D2 in marine and aviation respectively? I wouldn’t expect those volumes to make any difference, but just curious to know.

  12. Jody

    Nice read, curious how the vivofit vs vivoactive vs fenix/forerunner shakes out? I bought the active to supplement my bike in case something happened to just edge but got tired of carrying my bike computer on runs or running with my phone with an app running. Choose active over fit for the advanced options and over a forerunner/ fenix because it was cheaper. Plus, i caught it on a smoking sale. As a non serious runner, are serious runners choosing the active?

    • Tim Grose

      I know at least one very good runner who uses a Vívoactive. When all is said and done the type of Garmin (or similar) you use has little correlation with your ability as a runner but perhaps more the size of your budget! When I did a check recently I found at least half the top finishers in a good standard race I was in did not even use HR which for Garmin devices meant lots of them were “older” models.

  13. Felix

    If only the would invest in their German support team. That is – by their own account – extremly understaffed and it takes weeks and weeks just to get a generic answer. They sit on my drowned Vivoactive HR for a month now. :(

  14. Michael

    With your comments about the lack of discussion of bike/cycling and their comments about fitness, any thoughts on the future of, or a potential refresh of, the Vector pedals?

  15. Dan Lipsher

    Slight of hand. Should be sleight. That oughtta be worth an extra entry in the Extravaganza!

  16. Tim Grose

    “It’s simply a shift where people that used to buy a Forerunner watch are now buying a Fenix watch.”

    That’s an interesting statement. Maybe I move in the wrong circles but don’t see a huge number of my running and cycling friends sporting shiny new F5 devices or 935s for that matter. Are there regional variations in sales I wonder. Does perhaps the F5 sell better in the USA than the UK (where I am from) pro rata? Do F5s mainly sell to non athletes so I would not “see” that sector?

    Also just looked at about 30 or so sub 40 10K runners on Strava from a race tonight. Only 3 F5s and 1 935. Most people had older and much cheaper watches. Quick dip further down at 45 min runners and no F5s or 935s at all.

    Runners generally don’t like spending a fortune in my experience and the F5 is rather expensive. So who is buying them I wonder…

    • Adam

      The F5 hasn’t even been available for 6 months yet, so in terms of units on the ground it’s still going to be massively dwarfed by the F3 and others that have been shipping for well over 2 years now.

      In terms of sales figures and revenue for Garmin (i.e. the figures Ray is alluding to in the article) the numbers are going to shift away from old models and towards new models a lot more rapidly.

    • Tim Grose

      There were very few F3s in use in my example above as well.

      In fact I was chatting to a running friend on this very topic this AM. He made the interesting observation (which I was starting to think was the case) is that all the people he knows with F5 units aren’t really regular runners or cyclists. He thought the F5 was appealing as much if not more on the “looks” and “status” side than as a functional product for serious athletes. Good news for Garmin if so as it expands the target market considerably which in turn may explain why the Fenix and 935 continue to appear to the casual observer to be completely different products.

    • the5krunner

      Anecdotally I agree. F5 seems to be for aspirational types in my experience. I see more at bbqs than track or pool. At least for now

    • I’m referring to not just F5’s, but also F3’s too.

      I think the best example is the triathlete crowd. How many people do you now see with Fenix units as opposed to what would have always been a Forerunner (310XT, then 910XT, then 920XT, and so on)?

      Maybe one of these years someone will do a watch/bike computer count at Kona.

  17. Paul Gerber

    I use the Tesla app on the 935. The concept is awesome but the implementation is meh. Still, Ray if you are ever back in the Seattle area I’d be glad to demo it for you.

  18. Greg Hilton

    Interesting they didn’t mention bikes at all. Do you think Garmin sales are being affected by the seemingly well received Wahoo devices and what looks on paper like a decent device in the Karoo?

    • Investor calls tend to be about ‘what’s super new’ and ‘how’s that impacting our numbers’. If it doesn’t fall into either category, then it’s usually skipped.

  19. chris benten

    Nice article. Fitness trackers are tanking, IMO, because they are too expensive. Price of these devices are going up instead of down due to feature cramming. I recently purchased a Vivoactive 3 for all day HR and steps so I can wear a real watch (I have an F3). I would never use it to track excercise or during events due to limited HMI capabilities. VO2 max…really?? Drop the price to $75 for VA3 and maybe sales will go up.

    • Paul S.

      That might be a reason, and it might be that the information a fitness tracker offers is in the end not worth much. “Steps” and a bad calorie estimate aren’t worth anything to me, and I’m sure once the novelty wears off that’s going to be true of a lot of people that aren’t that interested in fitness anyway.

      I really wish the trend to put OHR on everything went away, too. I’d buy an Apple Watch without OHR, and to think that the next wrist based Garmin I buy (whenever that happens, my Epix works fine for now) will have an OHR sensor that I’ll never use is annoying.

    • Eric

      I agree completely about the OHR on everything.

    • Tim Grose

      My wife has a Fitbit. Some days she wears it, some days she does not. This seems to be on a whim and/or if she had remembered to charge it (or asked me to!). If she had more features would that appeal – I really don’t think so.

  20. klaus

    If one Internet source is true, Edge 1000 successor will be released second half of August. 2017.

  21. Eli

    Any prediction of a new garmin device by 9/17 that has bluetooth and wifi?

    link to fccid.io

  22. JY

    Anything talk on chrono new units?